What are the chances that this is random?

"AestheticsInMotion" (aestheticsinmotion)
11/13/2019 at 21:45 • Filed to: None

Actually, hold on. I’ll tell you.

Washington state uses a 7 character license plate, formatted as ABC1234.

I, o and q allegedly will not be used in the 3rd position for standard plates. This is likely to avoid confusion with similar letters that would be placed next to it. I and 1, O and 0, Q and 0, etc.

The die for the letter O and the number 0 are are the same, therefore two license plates that are the same besides an O/0 difference are not allowed.

Any combination that adheres to the above rules is fair game, so yes there is an aaa0000 floating around somewhere in Washington state, unless it’s been retired and is awaiting redeployment.

With the above taken into consideration....

The chances of the above plate being made randomly stands at 1 in 155,000,000. (no, I’m not accounting for the plates made since the 7 digit format was created around ten years ago or the fact that there is a convoluted County-based system in place for deciding the order of plate numbers in the state. I COULD.... But I don’t feel like mathing that hard.)

While the plate follows the ABC1234 format correctly, my guess is that someone had it custom made and purposely had it look like it was “by chance”.

However... There’s one way to tell for sure. Washington state switched over to screenprinting their vanity plates north of a decade ago, while standard plates are still embossed. From the pictures... Well. I can’t really make it out. Our state does a pretty good job of matching the screened plates to the embossed plates whearas in a lot of other states that have gone this route, the difference is quite stark.

With that said, if you happen to see this ATG9420 plate around... Report back for us.

DISCUSSION (19)

Chuckles > AestheticsInMotion
11/13/2019 at 21:53

What's the relevance of that combination?

MM54 > AestheticsInMotion
11/13/2019 at 21:53

Ohio also screen prints custom and re-issue plates as opposed to the random/standard ones that are stamped. I’m not familiar enough with your plates to be too confident but that one looks stamped (look at the lighting on the top of the 20)

Chariotoflove > Chuckles
11/13/2019 at 22:12

I’m glad you asked because I was wondering what I missed.

AestheticsInMotion > Chuckles
11/13/2019 at 22:38

69420? Maybe I’m too deep into the memedom

Chuckles > AestheticsInMotion
11/13/2019 at 22:42

It didn’t click for me to think of the G as a 6. Now that you mention it, that definitely supports your theory of a custom plate.

I guess it depends on where you live, but I never saw the point in paying extra for a particular plate. In NC they even charge you a vanity plate fee every year on your registration. If it was a one time thing, maybe. But I’m not spending $50 a year, every year to have a meme on my car.

fintail > AestheticsInMotion
11/13/2019 at 22:49

I’ll wager it is random.

ATG prefix matches up roughly with a 12/2014 registration from what I know, which checks out.

Tekamul > AestheticsInMotion
11/13/2019 at 22:54

Y ou’re probably reading too much into it. My money’s on random.

AestheticsInMotion > Tekamul
11/13/2019 at 23:13

Do you know how many times my three years of progressive college-level statistics courses have come in handy? Two times. Let me have this

AestheticsInMotion > Chuckles
11/13/2019 at 23:14

I go back and forth. I always wanted 2jdm4u on the Miata as a somewhat hidden inside joke that only enthusiasts would see.... But yeah between the hassle of getting the custom plate (you're telling me I have to write... A letter? Paper and pen?) and the yearly fee... I don't know

AestheticsInMotion > fintail
11/13/2019 at 23:26

Do you know that off the top of your head? Because if so I call dibs for trivia night

fintail > AestheticsInMotion
11/13/2019 at 23:32

I compare it to prefixes on cars I’ve driven, and the dates I know they were first registered. WA issues plates in alphanumeric order, so if you have a few reference points, you can guess a general timeframe. The plate in your pic having a December sticker links with a plate I recall having an “ASV” prefix registered in November 2014. From there, I guess December 2014. Maybe weird trivia, yeah.

AestheticsInMotion > fintail
11/13/2019 at 23:34

Okay, I want you for all the game shows

Chariotoflove > AestheticsInMotion
11/13/2019 at 23:47

Oh, is it the combination of 69 (age old sex meme) with 420 (pot)?

RPM esq. > AestheticsInMotion
11/14/2019 at 00:48

100%. You’re not allowed to make vanity plates in the ABC1234 format.

RPM esq. > fintail
11/14/2019 at 00:49

I do this too.

RPM esq. > fintail
11/14/2019 at 00:50

It’s random. ABC1234 is an invalid format for vanity plates.

Future Heap Owner > AestheticsInMotion
11/14/2019 at 00:52

The statistical question to ask yourself isn’t “if I pulled one license plate out of a hat, would it be this one?”, but “given all the license plates I see, what are the chances that eventually I’ll notice one that makes the funny numbers when you squint at it?”

For a long time, I assumed that Oregon’s DMV would disallow ‘666' as the numeric half, but I eventually saw one. So now I think somebody out there may randomly get a quite ominous plate like ‘666-DVL’ or ‘666-STN’ or ‘666-LUC’

Tekamul > AestheticsInMotion
11/14/2019 at 06:43

S orry, I had to go look it up. It can’t be vanity, they don’t allow them to follow the normal format

Kinja'd!!!

fintail > RPM esq.
11/14/2019 at 14:06

Some reference points: ZLT - early 2010 (I think), ALN - Feb 2013, ASV - Dec 2014, BBA - Jun 2016, BON - Mar 2019.

It would have been more difficult in the past, when the letter prefix was by county, but was still in sequential order - but with wide variances in population, it could be hard to pin down a date without a specific reference.